The well known strategy of creating fear whilst simultaneously providing the reassurance provides a lever of power and a mechanism of control.  Lies, damned lies and ‘global warming’ ……a new-age travesty of good intent, and a debate not about climate change, which is an obvious kindergarten fact, but rather about the alleged cause, all wrapped up in a mantle of new age ‘feel good’ save the planet, recycled sustainability.

If you have any doubt about the ‘changing seasons’ go to the excellent Antarctic Centre in Christchurch, near the airport. Wander on through and notice the fossils demonstrating the presence of beech forests over Antarctica a mere 12,000 years ago. It takes a minimal leap of insight to realise that things were much much warmer then. In fact, temperatures throughout the Holocene period have been warmer than the present day. In the fifteenth century the River Thames in London was recorded to be completely frozen over, solid, in an unbelievably cold winter. Fortunately though, since 1750 (the Maunder minimum) the global climate has gradually warmed until the present day, the gradient of the temperature rise  unaffected by the advent of industrialisation. The Maunder minimum is so named because it is a particularly quiescent period in solar activity with few sunspots. Today, we find ourselves in a similar solar situation. Sun spot activity is notably and unusually silent and we’re undeniably cooling and have been since 1998………………in spite of rising CO2.

Rather more recently, it is considered by some that anthropogenic CO2 (that is, CO2 generated by man) is a cause of rising global temperatures. Unfortunately for those that name human activity as the main cause, since around 1998 there has been no significant warming, and since 1998. Instead, there has been global cooling, the global mean surface temperatures falling on a trend of >1C per century (SPPI – Monckton 2009), and all the while atmospheric CO2 levels have risen.

A recent paper in the Journal of Hydrological Sciences shows how the retrospective application of the climate mathematical model was used to generate data which was then compared with the actual known temperatures over the same period. No concordance existed between the modeled data and actual temperature data sets, the latter remaining unsurprisingly normal and a long way south of IPCC model trends. Climate is a non-linear,  stochastic and chaotic system that cannot be predicted or modeled by the linear, deterministic and simplistic models relied upon by the IPCC. However, these poor mathematical models of reality provide a significant basis for indicative statements made by the IPCC and therefore much of the current political and economic (cap and trade, ETS) orientation.

However, just put the numbers in to perspective. Vital ‘green house’ gases comprise about 5% of the atmosphere by volume. Without these the Earth would be a globe of ice. Greater than 90% of this small fraction is water vapour (4% of total atmospheric volume) and entirely ‘natural’, a fact usually ignored by the protagonists of anthropogenic caused climate change . This substantial water vapour componet that provides a basis for clouds remains ‘unhandled’ by the IPCC mathematical models. To what extent an increase in atmospheric water vapour as the result of warming, with the generation of more clouds, and therefore greater planetary albedo (reflectance of sunlight) lowers the incident solar energy and therefore warming effect, is unknown.

On the other hand, CO2 accounts for 0.033% of the total atmosphere by volume and about 3% of this fraction is man-made (eg. 0.00099%). The human contribution to ‘global warming’ (CO2 and H2O) lies around 0.28%. It is undisputed that were everyone to scrupulously observe the Kyoto Protocol, global temperature would decline a meaningless infinitesimal amount over the next century.  So, if the goal is temperature reduction, the Protocol is ineffective. If there are other unstated goals such as energy diversification, less reliance on petroleum oil, an increase in the power of globalised central government and policy making, then it could be argued to be a success, particularly since the US has become a more interested player of late. India and China do not appear to be interested, which may be an insight into potential future economic and political power blocks.

‘Emperor Al’, can fool some of the people some of the time, but not all of the people all the time. The dispassionate wisdom of science is inexorably revealing itself. Undeniably true, science has never been and never will be a ‘consensus’ activity. Appeals made to ‘consensus’ as a means of adding a certain weight of compulsion, are only political means of implying concordance and justification, which may in fact not be present. Consensus is certainly not evidence.

The legitimate ecological and environmental  concerns of the many have been opportunistically hijacked by the power hungry quest of the few. Make no mistake, green eco-politics has little to do with environmental concern. It is a political force that endeavours to win hearts and minds in order to achieve power and control. Political, economic and emotional coercion are all stock tools of the trade. Capitalising on the ‘feel-good’ factor of ’save the planet’, is a ruthless exploitation of the unquestioning faithful, the uninformed majority who seem willing to readily believe what they read and hear in the media. Seeking knowledge through science or exploring the scientific debate, is unfortunately less of a choice for many. Yet, this is a crucial time to question and seek the truth, particularly as the media is notoriously unreliable and unashamedly biased.

The recent global economic demise of uncontrolled credit and the ensuing economic slump have ambushed the climate ‘consensus’.  The global recession has led to a scenario where the economics of irrational and useless ‘cap and trade’ policies are more visibly exposed as the stunningly expensive follies that they are. The hard edge of economic realism is a sure and sharp guillotine to the implementation of extravagant  ‘feel good’ policies with meaningless outcomes.

Intelligent energy utilitisation and diversification, freedom from dependence on a single energy source will eventually lead to an increasingly sophisticated global society. Humankind will not be returning to till the soil with bullocks, drive a horse and trap or even run a car driven by porcine flatulence. On the contrary, I believe that humankind will continue to flourish, realising a potential that embraces ever increasing numbers. But we really do need to develop an intolerance of, and a healthy skepticism for, the crusading political proclamations originating from the ministries and departments of ‘we know best’. It is this present societal phenomena of epic global proportion that sees the surrender of the many to the few.

Hearts and minds in the bag, power and control a short step behind – totalitarianism by any other name, is alive and well.