The well known strategy of creating fear whilst simultaneously providing the reassurance provides a lever of power and a mechanism of control.  Lies, damned lies and ‘global warming’ ……a new-age travesty of good intent, and a debate not about climate change, which is an obvious kindergarten fact, but rather about the alleged cause, all wrapped up in a mantle of new age ‘feel good’ save the planet, recycled sustainability.

If you have any doubt about the ‘changing seasons’ go to the excellent Antarctic Centre in Christchurch, near the airport. Wander on through and notice the fossils demonstrating the presence of beech forests over Antarctica a mere 12,000 years ago. It takes a minimal leap of insight to realise that things were much much warmer then. In fact, temperatures throughout the Holocene period have been warmer than the present day. In the fifteenth century the River Thames in London was recorded to be completely frozen over, solid, in an unbelievably cold winter. Fortunately though, since 1750 (the Maunder minimum) the global climate has gradually warmed until the present day, the gradient of the temperature rise  unaffected by the advent of industrialisation. The Maunder minimum is so named because it is a particularly quiescent period in solar activity with few sunspots. Today, we find ourselves in a similar solar situation. Sun spot activity is notably and unusually silent and we’re undeniably cooling and have been since 1998………………in spite of rising CO2.

Rather more recently, it is considered by some that anthropogenic CO2 (that is, CO2 generated by man) is a cause of rising global temperatures. Unfortunately for those that name human activity as the main cause, since around 1998 there has been no significant warming, and since 1998. Instead, there has been global cooling, the global mean surface temperatures falling on a trend of >1C per century (SPPI – Monckton 2009), and all the while atmospheric CO2 levels have risen.

A recent paper in the Journal of Hydrological Sciences shows how the retrospective application of the climate mathematical model was used to generate data which was then compared with the actual known temperatures over the same period. No concordance existed between the modeled data and actual temperature data sets, the latter remaining unsurprisingly normal and a long way south of IPCC model trends. Climate is a non-linear,  stochastic and chaotic system that cannot be predicted or modeled by the linear, deterministic and simplistic models relied upon by the IPCC. However, these poor mathematical models of reality provide a significant basis for indicative statements made by the IPCC and therefore much of the current political and economic (cap and trade, ETS) orientation.

However, just put the numbers in to perspective. Vital ‘green house’ gases comprise about 5% of the atmosphere by volume. Without these the Earth would be a globe of ice. Greater than 90% of this small fraction is water vapour (4% of total atmospheric volume) and entirely ‘natural’, a fact usually ignored by the protagonists of anthropogenic caused climate change . This substantial water vapour componet that provides a basis for clouds remains ‘unhandled’ by the IPCC mathematical models. To what extent an increase in atmospheric water vapour as the result of warming, with the generation of more clouds, and therefore greater planetary albedo (reflectance of sunlight) lowers the incident solar energy and therefore warming effect, is unknown.

On the other hand, CO2 accounts for 0.033% of the total atmosphere by volume and about 3% of this fraction is man-made (eg. 0.00099%). The human contribution to ‘global warming’ (CO2 and H2O) lies around 0.28%. It is undisputed that were everyone to scrupulously observe the Kyoto Protocol, global temperature would decline a meaningless infinitesimal amount over the next century.  So, if the goal is temperature reduction, the Protocol is ineffective. If there are other unstated goals such as energy diversification, less reliance on petroleum oil, an increase in the power of globalised central government and policy making, then it could be argued to be a success, particularly since the US has become a more interested player of late. India and China do not appear to be interested, which may be an insight into potential future economic and political power blocks.

‘Emperor Al’, can fool some of the people some of the time, but not all of the people all the time. The dispassionate wisdom of science is inexorably revealing itself. Undeniably true, science has never been and never will be a ‘consensus’ activity. Appeals made to ‘consensus’ as a means of adding a certain weight of compulsion, are only political means of implying concordance and justification, which may in fact not be present. Consensus is certainly not evidence.

The legitimate ecological and environmental  concerns of the many have been opportunistically hijacked by the power hungry quest of the few. Make no mistake, green eco-politics has little to do with environmental concern. It is a political force that endeavours to win hearts and minds in order to achieve power and control. Political, economic and emotional coercion are all stock tools of the trade. Capitalising on the ‘feel-good’ factor of ’save the planet’, is a ruthless exploitation of the unquestioning faithful, the uninformed majority who seem willing to readily believe what they read and hear in the media. Seeking knowledge through science or exploring the scientific debate, is unfortunately less of a choice for many. Yet, this is a crucial time to question and seek the truth, particularly as the media is notoriously unreliable and unashamedly biased.

The recent global economic demise of uncontrolled credit and the ensuing economic slump have ambushed the climate ‘consensus’.  The global recession has led to a scenario where the economics of irrational and useless ‘cap and trade’ policies are more visibly exposed as the stunningly expensive follies that they are. The hard edge of economic realism is a sure and sharp guillotine to the implementation of extravagant  ‘feel good’ policies with meaningless outcomes.

Intelligent energy utilitisation and diversification, freedom from dependence on a single energy source will eventually lead to an increasingly sophisticated global society. Humankind will not be returning to till the soil with bullocks, drive a horse and trap or even run a car driven by porcine flatulence. On the contrary, I believe that humankind will continue to flourish, realising a potential that embraces ever increasing numbers. But we really do need to develop an intolerance of, and a healthy skepticism for, the crusading political proclamations originating from the ministries and departments of ‘we know best’. It is this present societal phenomena of epic global proportion that sees the surrender of the many to the few.

Hearts and minds in the bag, power and control a short step behind – totalitarianism by any other name, is alive and well.

SUSTAINABLE EXERCISE AND YOU.

‘Sustainable’ has rapidly become a nearly meaningless buzz-word, a ‘feel-good’ word that any self-respecting advertisement or promotion cannot afford to be without. Sheer usage and widespread indiscriminate application has seen it assume to a level of clichéd meaninglessness. Fortunately however, when applied to exercise, sustainability has much more to do with having fun and enjoyment than anything else, so we’ll use it here with a relaxed disposition and that in mind.

Oftentimes one can see people in the gym undertaking activity with a magazine in front of them. They might be on the static bike, cross trainer or treadmill. They amble along, barely appearing to breath, presumably secure in the belief that because they are moving in the gym, they are on a road to fitness. On the other hand they could be there just for the relaxation and social company. If it’s the latter that’s the case, then please bother to don’t read on.

So, without doing a great injustice to the gilt-edged intentions of those who profess to the intention of exercise, which are and who are indeed to be applauded, it is worth bearing in mind that the results of such low wattage endeavours are predictably dim. Of course, a magazine is a fabulous distraction in an otherwise dull environment. It possibly relieves not only the boredom but any process of insight that twigs to the idea that being there is nearly a complete waste of time. It is likely that there is only a limited engagement and focus upon the activity in question. And that if truth be known, the level of enjoyment is low. One wonders about the primary motivation. Whilst not a total waste of time, it is close to it, particularly when one considers the gym fees involved. Honestly, it would be cheaper to stroll around the park and enjoy the scenery.

The are three keys to beneficial and sustainable exercise:

ENJOY!

DO THE WORK!

DON’T INJURE YOURSELF!

1.    Enjoy!

If you do, exercise is very much more likely to be sustainable. In other words, you’ll go back for more and you’ll feel a positive sense of enjoyment. Self-affirmation will build with results and a sense of relaxation will become apparent in association with doing an activity that engenders pleasure.

2.    Do the work!

Figure out how much exercise you need to do and do the work! Stop wasting your time and money in a gym, staring into space, reading magazines and generally distracting yourself from the purpose of being there. The scenery is arguably more pleasant and much cheaper in the park. Put your gym membership on hold, save the money and go for a stroll in the park instead.

3.    Don’t injure yourself!

There’s absolutely no sense in injuring yourself pursuing paid for recreational activity that is fun and relaxing. If you find yourself getting bored, seek the help of the professionals in the gym to liven up your program or adjust its goals. Accidents happen but in the context of the gym, a potentially highly controlled risk environment, these should be very limited. Help yourself by not getting too tired training, or training when you’re too tired. Take care of yourself; over-training, uninformed-training, no rest-days and training when sick are all big no-no’s. Also, training near people who are sick is inadvisable. Coughing and sneezing, the flu and illness just do not belong in the gym. Don’t take them there. Consider others and insist on the same. Use gloves when handling equipment and never touch your eyes or face during training. Always wash your hands first. Carry a hand towel to mop sweat. Finally, procure professional advice in helping design your enjoyable exercise schedule.

The Metabolic Equivalent (MET), is a physiological concept that expresses the energy cost of physical activity as a multiple of the metabolic rate at rest. It is a ratio of metabolic rate (rate of energy consumption) during a specific physical activity when compared against a reference rate of metabolic rate at rest, set by convention to 3.5 ml O2 . kg-1 . min-1 consumption, or an equivalent energy output of 1 kcal (or 4.184 kJ) . kg-1 . hr-1.

1 MET is considered as the resting metabolic rate obtained during quiet sitting with values indicative of physical activity ranging between 0.9 (sleeping) to 18 (running fast at 17.5 km/h). For example, should you weigh 55kg, your resting metabolic rate will be 55kcal per hour or 70kg, it will be 70kcal per hour at rest.

MET values of physical activities are able to provide a rough indication of the all important intensity of physical activities. They may be used as a practical means of expressing the intensity and energy expenditure of physical activities among people of different body weight. Actual energy expenditure (calories or joules) during a physical activity depends upon the person’s body mass. The same physical activity will be have different energy expenditure for persons of different weight. Smaller people require less energy at rest than larger people, and proportionally less energy to move than larger people. So MET’s enable a direct comparison to be made between individuals of different weights based on the activity pursued.  Consequently, heavy people require a larger exercise energy expenditure to achieve the same proportionate weight loss as a lighter person. This becomes of increasing relevance when the entire body weight is being moved less, such as when cycling or cross training.

Why then is ‘strolling in the park’  nearly a complete waste of time as far as the exercise benefit is concerned? Simply because the amount of energy expended is so small that it will be irrelevant in the wider picture. The exercise will need to be conducted for a very, very long time. Sustainability is a great issue here because, unless you’re getting an emotional reward, it is unlikely you’ll persist.

Given that one needs to burn 3500kcal to erase 0.45kg fat (1lb) it is a simple matter to calculate the energy expenditure required to lose a given amount of weight. Those numbers multiply out quickly and it soon becomes evident that the work required is quite large. The only way you’ll get to stick at it is if you hold all those exercise keys! It doesn’t matter what you do, only that you get to move with a measure of effort-related-intensity and that you persist at it, that you enjoy it and that it doesn’t wreck you one way or another.
So, make the difference to your life and your wallet by doing the work! Save yourself time and the money by actually making a physical effort.

Remember, find a physical activity that you enjoy, that is fun and doesn’t wear you down physically or mentally. It’s an activity that is more likely to be sustainable!

4.5 METS is classed lies between light and moderate exercise.

Here are some MET values associated with some everyday activities:

Lying quietly in bed = 1     MET
Walking slowly = 2.5     MET
Leisurely cycle = 3.5    MET
Slow swim  = 4.5    MET
Walking brisk = 4.5     MET
Vacuuming house  = 3.5    MET
Fast walk  = 8.0    MET
Jogging = 10.2 MET
Squash = 12    MET

4.5 MET is chosen here as an example, because it is representative of light to moderate activity and it provides an exercise context for possible targeted weight loss.

Activity that holds the keys of sustainability is exercise that provides the means of realising the goals of weight loss, health and fitness, mental and emotional well being. The choice of an activity is only limited by imagination. If you’re having difficulty, enlist the help of others, whether friends or professionals to help you think creatively about exercise to make it sustainable.